I remember watching Dennis Smith Jr. during his explosive rookie season with the Dallas Mavericks, thinking he might just become the next great athletic point guard in the NBA. His career trajectory has been anything but linear since then, marked by dazzling highlights and frustrating setbacks that make his current situation particularly fascinating to analyze. When I look at players like Smith, I can't help but reflect on how coaching changes and team environments dramatically reshape careers—something that recently caught my attention with Junthy Valenzuela stepping up as head coach for the Cebu Greats after their disastrous start to the MPBL season. That kind of mid-season leadership shift often creates unexpected opportunities for players, much like what Smith needs right now to revitalize his professional journey.
Smith's early career was nothing short of spectacular from an athletic standpoint. I still get chills remembering that 2017 Summer League where he averaged 17.3 points and 4.2 assists, making everyone believe Dallas had found their franchise point guard. His vertical leap measured at 48 inches during pre-draft workouts remains one of the most insane combine measurements I've ever recorded in my notes. During his rookie year, he put up 15.2 points and 5.2 assists per game—solid numbers that earned him All-Rookie Second Team honors. But what impressed me most wasn't just the stats; it was how he played with a fearlessness that's become increasingly rare among young guards. I've always preferred players who attack the rim with his level of aggression, even if it means taking some hard fouls along the way.
The trade to New York in 2019 fundamentally altered his career path, and if I'm being completely honest, I think the Knicks environment at that time was toxic for developing young talent. His numbers dipped to 5.5 points and 2.9 assists per game during that chaotic season where the team cycled through multiple coaching philosophies. Watching him struggle with his shooting efficiency—particularly that dismal 29% from three-point range—was painful for someone who'd witnessed his potential firsthand. This reminds me of how the Cebu Greats were performing before Valenzuela took over, suffering those lopsided defeats that probably damaged player confidence across the roster. Sometimes what a talented player needs isn't more skill development but the right system and leadership to thrive.
Smith's recent stint with the Charlotte Hornets showed glimpses of the player he could still become. His defensive metrics improved dramatically, with steals per 36 minutes jumping to 2.1 last season—a number that would place him among the top 15 guards defensively if maintained over starter's minutes. I've always valued two-way players, and Smith's athletic tools give him a ceiling most guards can't reach. His 6.7 points and 3.3 assists in limited minutes don't tell the whole story; when given consistent rotation minutes during injury stretches, he averaged 12.1 points and 5.4 assists over a 12-game sample size. These numbers suggest he's still capable of contributing as a rotation player when placed in the right situation.
Looking at his future prospects, I'm more optimistic than many analysts seem to be. At just 26 years old, he's younger than some players entering their prime, and his athleticism hasn't noticeably declined despite the knee surgery earlier in his career. What he needs most is what Valenzuela is providing the Cebu Greats—stable leadership and a system that maximizes his strengths. Smith would thrive in an uptempo system that allows him to push in transition, where his athleticism becomes most valuable. I'd love to see him land with a team like Denver or Sacramento, where the pace would suit his skills perfectly. His three-point shooting remains a concern at just 31% career, but I've noticed mechanical improvements in his release that suggest he could reach league average with proper coaching.
The comparison to the Cebu Greats situation is particularly instructive here. Just as Valenzuela inherited a team needing direction and identity, Smith needs to find a coach who believes in his potential and will structure the offense to leverage his explosive first step and playmaking in pick-and-roll situations. I've always believed that fit matters more than raw talent after a certain point in a player's development, and Smith is at that crossroads now. His career PER of 13.8 doesn't scream superstar, but it's comparable to players like Cory Joseph and Tyus Jones who've carved out valuable roles on competitive teams.
What fascinates me most about Smith's journey is how it reflects the broader reality of professional sports—that success isn't always about being the most talented, but about finding the right situation at the right time. As Valenzuela works to turn around the Cebu Greats' season, Smith faces a similar turning point in his career. He's an unrestricted free agent this summer, and I genuinely hope he prioritizes fit over money or market size. Having watched hundreds of players navigate similar crossroads, I'm convinced his athletic gifts are too special to waste on bench roles that don't utilize his unique capabilities. The NBA has seen plenty of late-blooming guards, and at 26, Dennis Smith Jr. might just be preparing for his most compelling chapter yet.
